General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 22% Meon Valley (2019), 78% Winchester (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
The Lib Dems would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
---|---|---|---|
YouGov | Lib Dem 52% | Tory 31% | Lib Dem |
Survation | Lib Dem 52% | Tory 26% | Lib Dem |
Ipsos | Lib Dem 43% | Tory 32% | Lib Dem |
Savanta | Lib Dem 42% | Tory 27% | Lib Dem |
Focaldata | Lib Dem 42% | Tory 33% | Lib Dem |
WeThink | Lib Dem 47% | Tory 28% | Lib Dem |
Electoral Calculus | Lib Dem 59% | Tory 20% | Lib Dem |
More in Common | Lib Dem 53% | Tory 26% | Lib Dem |
JL Partners | Lib Dem 43% | Tory 27% | Lib Dem |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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