General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 43% Elmet and Rothwell (2019), 5% Harrogate and Knaresborough (2019), 29% Selby and Ainsty (2019), 4% Skipton and Ripon (2019), 19% Thirsk and Malton (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
---|---|---|---|
YouGov | Tory 46% | Labour 32% | Labour |
Survation | Labour 42% | Tory 42% | Labour |
Ipsos | Tory 38% | Labour 34% | Labour |
Savanta | Labour 34% | Tory 31% | Labour |
Focaldata | Tory 42% | Labour 29% | Labour |
WeThink | Tory 40% | Labour 27% | Labour |
Electoral Calculus | Tory 33% | Labour 29% | Labour |
More in Common | Tory 37% | Labour 31% | Labour |
JL Partners | Tory 35% | Labour 30% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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