General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 45% Ashford (2019), 13% Faversham and Mid Kent (2019), 3% Folkestone and Hythe (2019), 39% Maidstone and The Weald (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 43% | Labour 24% | Labour |
| Survation | Tory 35% | Labour 32% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Tory 36% | Labour 25% | Labour |
| Savanta | Tory 34% | Labour 30% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Tory 41% | Labour 24% | Labour |
| WeThink | Tory 41% | Labour 29% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Tory 32% | Labour 29% | Labour |
| More in Common | Tory 45% | Labour 27% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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