General election 2024


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Nick Thomas-Symonds

Notional 2019 election result

  Labour 40.8%

  Tories 34%

  Brexit Party 13.7%

  Lib Dem 5.5%

  Plaid 3.7%

  Green 2.2%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 89% Torfaen (2019), 11% Monmouth (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Labour 48% Reform 19% Labour
Survation Labour 50% Tory 14% Labour
Ipsos Labour 48% Tory 18% Labour
Savanta Labour 50% Reform 20% Labour
Focaldata Labour 47% Reform 24% Labour
WeThink Labour 49% Reform 21% Labour
Electoral Calculus Labour 45% Reform 25% Labour
More in Common Labour 54% Reform 17% Labour
JL Partners Labour 45% Reform 22% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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