General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 6% Dartford (2019), 6% Sevenoaks (2019), 88% Tonbridge and Malling (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
This constituency was previously "too close to call". We are now making a Labour recommendation to increase alignment between tactical voting websites. We also note that polls show Labour best placed to win.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 40% | Labour 27% | Labour |
| Survation | Tory 34% | Labour 31% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Labour 34% | Tory 33% | Labour |
| Savanta | Tory 32% | Labour 31% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Tory 37% | Labour 28% | Labour |
| WeThink | Tory 34% | Labour 24% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Tory 34% | Labour 23% | Labour |
| More in Common | Tory 37% | Labour 20% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
Promoted by the Tactical Voting Coalition, 483 Green Lanes, London N13 4BS