Thornbury and Yate

To vote tactically here, vote

Lib Dem

Claire Young

Notional 2019 election result

Tories 57.1%

Lib Dem 31.9%

Labour 10.7%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 8% Filton and Bradley Stoke (2019), 1% Kingswood (2019), 91% Thornbury and Yate (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

The Lib Dems would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Lib Dem 46%	Tory 31%	Lib Dem
Survation	Lib Dem 40%	Tory 27%	Lib Dem
Ipsos	Tory 36%	Lib Dem 33%	Lib Dem
Savanta	Lib Dem 36%	Tory 30%	Lib Dem
Focaldata	Lib Dem 38%	Tory 33%	Lib Dem
WeThink	Lib Dem 35%	Tory 31%	Lib Dem
Electoral Calculus	Lib Dem 46%	Tory 30%	Lib Dem
More in Common	Lib Dem 45%	Tory 27%	Lib Dem
JL Partners	Lib Dem 35%	Tory 25%	Lib Dem

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.