General election 2024

Stoke-on-Trent Central

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Labour

Gareth Snell

Notional 2019 election result

  Tories 49.6%

  Labour 41.4%

  Brexit Party 4.3%

  Lib Dem 3.6%

  Green 2%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 75% Stoke-On-Trent Central (2019), 6% Stoke-On-Trent North (2019), 20% Stoke-On-Trent South (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Labour 53% Reform 19% Labour
Survation Labour 53% Tory 22% Labour
Ipsos Labour 51% Tory 23% Labour
Savanta Labour 54% Tory 21% Labour
Focaldata Labour 48% Reform 26% Labour
WeThink Labour 42% Reform 28% Labour
Electoral Calculus Labour 50% Reform 28% Labour
More in Common Labour 45% Tory 22% Labour
JL Partners Labour 46% Tory 24% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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