General election 2024


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Leigh Ingham

Notional 2019 election result

  Tories 59.8%

  Labour 28.9%

  Lib Dem 6.8%

  Green 4.5%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 76% Stafford (2019), 24% Stone (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Labour 43% Tory 32% Labour
Survation Labour 47% Tory 28% Labour
Ipsos Labour 45% Tory 29% Labour
Savanta Labour 47% Tory 26% Labour
Focaldata Labour 41% Tory 30% Labour
WeThink Labour 47% Tory 26% Labour
Electoral Calculus Labour 46% Tory 25% Labour
More in Common Labour 42% Tory 31% Labour
JL Partners Labour 39% Tory 28% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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