General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 2% Edmonton (2019), 2% Enfield North (2019), 54% Enfield, Southgate (2019), 34% Hornsey and Wood Green (2019), 7% Tottenham (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 56% | Tory 13% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 50% | Tory 20% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Labour 52% | Tory 16% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 62% | Tory 18% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Labour 62% | Tory 16% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 55% | Tory 15% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 58% | Tory 16% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 72% | Tory 16% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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