General election 2024

South West Wiltshire

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Evelyn Akoto

Notional 2019 election result

  Tories 59.9%

  Labour 20.3%

  Lib Dem 15.6%

  Green 4.2%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 5% Chippenham (2019), 95% South West Wiltshire (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Tory 32% Labour 29% Labour
Survation Labour 34% Tory 29% Labour
Ipsos Tory 33% Labour 32% Labour
Savanta Labour 33% Tory 30% Labour
Focaldata Labour 32% Tory 30% Labour
WeThink Labour 37% Tory 27% Labour
Electoral Calculus Labour 30% Tory 30% Labour
More in Common Tory 31% Labour 26% Labour
JL Partners Labour 28% Tory 26% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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