South West Hertfordshire

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Labour

Alex Sufit

Notional 2019 election result

Tories 48.4%

Labour 19.5%

Independent 16.7%

Lib Dem 13.5%

Green 1.8%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 5% Hemel Hempstead (2019), 64% South West Hertfordshire (2019), 4% St Albans (2019), 27% Watford (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Tory 31%	Labour 23%	Labour
Survation	Tory 30%	Labour 30%	Labour
Ipsos	Tory 33%	Labour 29%	Labour
Savanta	Labour 33%	Tory 31%	Labour
Focaldata	Tory 33%	Labour 28%	Labour
WeThink	Labour 28%	Tory 28%	Labour
Electoral Calculus	Labour 35%	Tory 28%	Labour
More in Common	Tory 33%	Labour 25%	Labour
JL Partners	Tory 28%	Labour 26%	Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.