South Northamptonshire

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Labour

Rufia Ashraf

Notional 2019 election result

Tories 62%

Labour 20.9%

Lib Dem 11.5%

Green 3.9%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 9% Daventry (2019), 84% South Northamptonshire (2019), 6% Wellingborough (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Tory 32%	Labour 31%	Labour
Survation	Labour 38%	Tory 34%	Labour
Ipsos	Labour 36%	Tory 34%	Labour
Savanta	Labour 36%	Tory 28%	Labour
Focaldata	Labour 35%	Tory 33%	Labour
WeThink	Labour 36%	Tory 28%	Labour
Electoral Calculus	Labour 34%	Tory 27%	Labour
More in Common	Tory 34%	Labour 33%	Labour
JL Partners	Tory 31%	Labour 28%	Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.