General election 2024

South Basildon and East Thurrock

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Labour

Jack Ferguson

Notional 2019 election result

  Tories 65.4%

  Labour 23.4%

  Independent 6.8%

  Lib Dem 4.2%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 90% South Basildon and East Thurrock (2019), 10% Thurrock (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Labour 37% Tory 32% Labour
Survation Labour 42% Tory 26% Labour
Ipsos Labour 37% Tory 36% Labour
Savanta Labour 38% Tory 32% Labour
Focaldata Labour 38% Tory 29% Labour
WeThink Labour 38% Reform 27% Labour
Electoral Calculus Labour 35% Reform 26% Labour
More in Common Tory 32% Labour 31% Labour
JL Partners Labour 33% Reform 28% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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