General election 2024

Sefton Central

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Bill Esterson

Notional 2019 election result

  Labour 54.9%

  Tories 30.5%

  Lib Dem 7.6%

  Brexit Party 4.1%

  Green 2.1%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 86% Sefton Central (2019), 14% Southport (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Labour 64% Tory 14% Labour
Survation Labour 66% Tory 14% Labour
Ipsos Labour 57% Tory 19% Labour
Savanta Labour 59% Tory 16% Labour
Focaldata Labour 55% Tory 17% Labour
WeThink Labour 63% Tory 16% Labour
Electoral Calculus Labour 58% Reform 15% Labour
More in Common Labour 60% Tory 19% Labour
JL Partners Labour 53% Reform 17% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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