General election 2024


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Matt Aldridge

Notional 2019 election result

  Tories 56.8%

  Lib Dem 19%

  Labour 18.3%

  Green 4.6%

  Independent 1.2%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 88% Salisbury (2019), 12% South West Wiltshire (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

This constituency was previously "too close to call". We are now making a Labour recommendation to increase alignment between tactical voting websites. We also note that polls show Labour best placed to win.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Tory 33% Labour 25% Labour
Survation Labour 30% Tory 29% Labour
Ipsos Labour 32% Tory 30% Labour
Savanta Labour 32% Tory 28% Labour
Focaldata Labour 33% Tory 31% Labour
WeThink Tory 24% Lib Dem 22% Lib Dem
Electoral Calculus Labour 31% Tory 29% Labour
More in Common Tory 31% Labour 25% Labour
JL Partners Tory 28% Labour 25% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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