General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 42% Grantham and Stamford (2019), 58% Rutland and Melton (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 40% | Labour 19% | Labour |
| Survation | Tory 37% | Labour 26% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Tory 38% | Labour 26% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 33% | Tory 29% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Tory 36% | Labour 26% | Labour |
| WeThink | Tory 36% | Labour 27% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Tory 36% | Labour 31% | Labour |
| More in Common | Tory 43% | Labour 27% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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