General election 2024

Rawmarsh and Conisbrough

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Labour

John Healey

Notional 2019 election result

  Labour 38.5%

  Tories 37.8%

  Brexit Party 15.8%

  Lib Dem 4.2%

  The Yorkshire Party 2.5%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 30% Don Valley (2019), 3% Rother Valley (2019), 67% Wentworth and Dearne (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Labour 48% Reform 30% Labour
Survation Labour 50% Reform 28% Labour
Ipsos Labour 52% Reform 21% Labour
Savanta Labour 51% Reform 25% Labour
Focaldata Labour 47% Reform 30% Labour
WeThink Labour 48% Reform 29% Labour
Electoral Calculus Labour 49% Reform 33% Labour
More in Common Labour 46% Reform 26% Labour
JL Partners Labour 43% Reform 27% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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