General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 9% Carlisle (2019), 8% Copeland (2019), 37% Penrith and The Border (2019), 46% Workington (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 36% | Tory 32% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 46% | Tory 27% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Labour 42% | Tory 30% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 46% | Tory 24% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Labour 42% | Tory 27% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 45% | Tory 26% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 47% | Tory 25% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 45% | Tory 32% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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