General election 2024

North Durham

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Luke Akehurst

Notional 2019 election result

  Labour 43.8%

  Tories 33.7%

  Brexit Party 10.8%

  Lib Dem 6.8%

  Green 2.7%

  Independent 2.4%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 92% North Durham (2019), 8% North West Durham (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Labour 37% Reform 28% Labour
Survation Labour 47% Reform 19% Labour
Ipsos Labour 54% Reform 17% Labour
Savanta Labour 53% Reform 21% Labour
Focaldata Labour 51% Reform 22% Labour
WeThink Labour 44% Reform 25% Labour
Electoral Calculus Labour 44% Reform 26% Labour
More in Common Labour 46% Reform 21% Labour
JL Partners Labour 45% Reform 23% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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