General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 19% Stroud (2019), 31% Tewkesbury (2019), 50% The Cotswolds (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
We have removed this tactical voting recommendation because it was contradicted by multiple independent polls.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 38% | Lib Dem 24% | Lib Dem |
| Survation | Tory 32% | Labour 27% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Tory 35% | Labour 29% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 30% | Tory 30% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Tory 33% | Labour 26% | Labour |
| WeThink | Tory 34% | Labour 26% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Tory 28% | Reform 23% | Labour |
| More in Common | Tory 35% | Lib Dem 26% | Lib Dem |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
Promoted by the Tactical Voting Coalition, 483 Green Lanes, London N13 4BS