General election 2024

North Ayrshire and Arran

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SNP

Patricia Gibson

2019 election result

  SNP 48.5%

  Tories 30.8%

  Labour 13.9%

  Lib Dem 4.4%

  Green 2.3%

The SNP won this seat in 2019, so are likely to be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov SNP 39% Labour 31% None
Survation Labour 40% SNP 26% None
Ipsos Labour 35% SNP 34% None
Savanta Labour 36% SNP 34% None
Focaldata SNP 32% Labour 32% None
WeThink SNP 36% Labour 30% None
Electoral Calculus SNP 37% Labour 31% None
More in Common SNP 34% Labour 31% None
JL Partners SNP 35% Labour 32% None

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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