General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 84% Hemsworth (2019), 16% Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 52% | Reform 26% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 45% | Reform 32% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Labour 50% | Reform 23% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 52% | Reform 24% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Labour 51% | Reform 28% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 53% | Reform 22% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 49% | Reform 27% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 49% | Reform 22% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
Promoted by the Tactical Voting Coalition, 483 Green Lanes, London N13 4BS