General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 23% Bishop Auckland (2019), 13% City of Durham (2019), 63% Sedgefield (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 50% | Reform 21% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 49% | Tory 22% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Labour 50% | Tory 25% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 52% | Reform 21% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Labour 44% | Reform 25% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 48% | Reform 28% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 50% | Reform 22% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 58% | Tory 25% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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