Newport West and Islwyn

To vote tactically here, vote

Labour

Ruth Jones

Notional 2019 election result

Labour 44.2%

Tories 34.8%

Brexit Party 9.3%

Plaid 4.8%

Lib Dem 4.8%

Green 2%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 47% Newport West (2019), 53% Islwyn (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Labour 36%	Reform 26%	Labour
Survation	Labour 51%	Reform 18%	Labour
Ipsos	Labour 49%	Tory 21%	Labour
Savanta	Labour 50%	Tory 19%	Labour
Focaldata	Labour 46%	Reform 20%	Labour
WeThink	Labour 53%	Reform 19%	Labour
Electoral Calculus	Labour 46%	Reform 24%	Labour
More in Common	Labour 51%	Tory 19%	Labour
JL Partners	Labour 43%	Reform 23%	Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.