General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 47% Newport West (2019), 53% Islwyn (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 39% | Reform 23% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 47% | Tory 20% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Labour 49% | Tory 21% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 50% | Tory 19% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Labour 49% | Reform 20% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 53% | Reform 19% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 47% | Reform 22% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 51% | Tory 24% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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