General election 2024

Morecambe and Lunesdale

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Lizzi Collinge

Notional 2019 election result

  Tories 51.3%

  Labour 33%

  Lib Dem 13.5%

  Green 1.7%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 5% Lancaster and Fleetwood (2019), 77% Morecambe and Lunesdale (2019), 19% Westmorland and Lonsdale (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Labour 41% Tory 32% Labour
Survation Labour 55% Tory 25% Labour
Ipsos Labour 44% Tory 30% Labour
Savanta Labour 44% Tory 23% Labour
Focaldata Labour 40% Tory 29% Labour
WeThink Labour 42% Tory 26% Labour
Electoral Calculus Labour 46% Tory 22% Labour
More in Common Labour 37% Tory 29% Labour
JL Partners Labour 37% Tory 29% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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