General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 30% Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (2019), 70% Moray (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
The SNP are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | SNP 37% | Tory 28% | SNP |
| Survation | SNP 30% | Tory 26% | SNP |
| Ipsos | SNP 37% | Tory 26% | SNP |
| Savanta | SNP 30% | Tory 29% | SNP |
| Focaldata | SNP 33% | Tory 24% | SNP |
| WeThink | SNP 36% | Tory 22% | SNP |
| Electoral Calculus | SNP 32% | Labour 28% | None |
| More in Common | SNP 41% | Tory 23% | SNP |
| JL Partners | SNP 34% | Labour 21% | None |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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