General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 81% Monmouth (2019), 19% Newport East (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 39% | Tory 32% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 37% | Tory 32% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Labour 45% | Tory 29% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 44% | Tory 26% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Labour 41% | Tory 27% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 39% | Tory 25% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 47% | Tory 31% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 45% | Tory 29% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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