General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 18% Arundel and South Downs (2019), 82% Mid Sussex (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
We have withdrawn this recommendation to avoid a clash between different tactical voting websites.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Lib Dem 43% | Tory 24% | Lib Dem |
| Survation | Labour 30% | Tory 29% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Tory 30% | Labour 28% | Labour |
| Savanta | Lib Dem 32% | Labour 27% | None |
| Focaldata | Lib Dem 31% | Tory 29% | Lib Dem |
| WeThink | Tory 32% | Labour 27% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Lib Dem 45% | Tory 24% | Lib Dem |
| More in Common | Lib Dem 30% | Tory 28% | Lib Dem |
| JL Partners | Labour 27% | Tory 25% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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