General election 2024

Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare

Tactical voting recommendation

Not needed

Notional 2019 election result

  Labour 52%

  Tories 20.6%

  Brexit Party 10.7%

  Plaid 7.9%

  Independent 3.5%

  Lib Dem 3.3%

  The Cynon Valley Party 1.7%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 40% Cynon Valley (2019), 60% Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

This is a 'safe' seat for a progressive party. We believe tactical voting is not needed this time. We encourage you to vote for your preferred party.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Labour 40% Reform 21% Labour
Survation Labour 49% Reform 20% Labour
Ipsos Labour 54% Reform 15% Labour
Savanta Labour 51% Reform 16% Labour
Focaldata Labour 50% Reform 22% Labour
WeThink Labour 50% Reform 13% Labour
Electoral Calculus Labour 51% Reform 21% Labour
More in Common Labour 55% Reform 17% Labour
JL Partners Labour 48% Reform 19% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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