General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 40% Cynon Valley (2019), 60% Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
This is a 'safe' seat for a progressive party. We believe tactical voting is not needed this time. We encourage you to vote for your preferred party.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 37% | Reform 20% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 43% | Reform 20% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Labour 54% | Reform 15% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 51% | Reform 16% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Labour 56% | Reform 20% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 50% | Reform 13% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 52% | Reform 19% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 54% | Tory 20% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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