General election 2024

Melksham and Devizes

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Lib Dem

Brian Mathew

Notional 2019 election result

  Tories 58.3%

  Lib Dem 26.2%

  Labour 13%

  Green 2.6%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 49% Chippenham (2019), 37% Devizes (2019), 11% North Wiltshire (2019), 3% South West Wiltshire (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

The Lib Dems would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Lib Dem 40% Tory 33% Lib Dem
Survation Tory 29% Lib Dem 26% Lib Dem
Ipsos Tory 36% Lib Dem 25% Lib Dem
Savanta Tory 30% Lib Dem 30% Lib Dem
Focaldata Lib Dem 36% Tory 35% Lib Dem
WeThink Tory 35% Lib Dem 29% Lib Dem
Electoral Calculus Lib Dem 45% Tory 26% Lib Dem
More in Common Lib Dem 33% Tory 31% Lib Dem
JL Partners Tory 29% Lib Dem 28% Lib Dem

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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