General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 49% Chippenham (2019), 37% Devizes (2019), 11% North Wiltshire (2019), 3% South West Wiltshire (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
The Lib Dems would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 35% | Lib Dem 34% | Lib Dem |
| Survation | Tory 31% | Lib Dem 27% | Lib Dem |
| Ipsos | Tory 36% | Lib Dem 25% | Lib Dem |
| Savanta | Tory 30% | Lib Dem 30% | Lib Dem |
| Focaldata | Tory 34% | Lib Dem 30% | Lib Dem |
| WeThink | Tory 35% | Lib Dem 29% | Lib Dem |
| Electoral Calculus | Lib Dem 44% | Tory 28% | Lib Dem |
| More in Common | Tory 40% | Lib Dem 28% | Lib Dem |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
Promoted by the Tactical Voting Coalition, 483 Green Lanes, London N13 4BS