General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 16% Ashton-Under-Lyne (2019), 16% Blackley and Broughton (2019), 68% Manchester Central (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
This is a 'safe' seat for a progressive party. We believe tactical voting is not needed this time. We encourage you to vote for your preferred party.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 55% | Reform 15% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 56% | Green 11% | None |
| Ipsos | Labour 67% | Green 10% | None |
| Savanta | Labour 66% | Tory 13% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Labour 65% | Reform 13% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 64% | Reform 12% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 60% | Reform 12% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 58% | Reform 12% | Labour |
| JL Partners | Labour 60% | Reform 12% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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