Makerfield

To vote tactically here, vote

Labour

Josh Simons

Notional 2019 election result

Labour 45%

Tories 34.7%

Brexit Party 13%

Lib Dem 4.8%

Green 2.6%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 3% Leigh (2019), 97% Makerfield (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Labour 53%	Reform 25%	Labour
Survation	Labour 58%	Reform 12%	Labour
Ipsos	Labour 55%	Tory 19%	Labour
Savanta	Labour 54%	Reform 19%	Labour
Focaldata	Labour 55%	Reform 22%	Labour
WeThink	Labour 61%	Reform 16%	Labour
Electoral Calculus	Labour 50%	Reform 31%	Labour
More in Common	Labour 53%	Reform 19%	Labour
JL Partners	Labour 50%	Reform 23%	Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.