General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 9% Chatham and Aylesford (2019), 70% Maidstone and The Weald (2019), 21% Tonbridge and Malling (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 32% | Lib Dem 20% | Lib Dem |
| Survation | Labour 35% | Tory 33% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Labour 37% | Tory 33% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 32% | Tory 30% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Tory 34% | Labour 31% | Labour |
| WeThink | Tory 29% | Labour 25% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Tory 29% | Labour 26% | Labour |
| More in Common | Tory 38% | Labour 26% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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