Louth and Horncastle

To vote tactically here, vote

Labour

Jonathan Slater

Notional 2019 election result

Tories 72.5%

Labour 17.6%

Lib Dem 7.9%

Monster Raving Loony Party 1.9%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 3% Gainsborough (2019), 97% Louth and Horncastle (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Tory 41%	Labour 26%	Labour
Survation	Labour 36%	Tory 34%	Labour
Ipsos	Tory 38%	Labour 31%	Labour
Savanta	Labour 34%	Reform 28%	Labour
Focaldata	Tory 35%	Labour 29%	Labour
WeThink	Labour 40%	Tory 35%	Labour
Electoral Calculus	Reform 33%	Labour 29%	Labour
More in Common	Tory 36%	Reform 26%	Labour
JL Partners	Tory 42%	Labour 27%	Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.