Llanelli

To vote tactically here, vote

Labour

Nia Griffith

Notional 2019 election result

Labour 39.6%

Tories 30.5%

Plaid 20.9%

Brexit Party 9%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 88% Llanelli (2019), 12% Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Labour 29%	Plaid 29%	None
Survation	Labour 50%	Tory 19%	Labour
Ipsos	Labour 36%	Plaid 26%	None
Savanta	Labour 38%	Plaid 27%	None
Focaldata	Labour 47%	Reform 22%	Labour
WeThink	Labour 42%	Plaid 22%	None
Electoral Calculus	Labour 34%	Reform 25%	Labour
More in Common	Labour 40%	Reform 30%	Labour
JL Partners	Labour 34%	Plaid 30%	None

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.