General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 15% Haltemprice and Howden (2019), 3% Kingston upon Hull East (2019), 73% Kingston upon Hull North (2019), 9% Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 50% | Reform 20% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 42% | Reform 21% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Labour 51% | Tory 20% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 53% | Reform 20% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Labour 53% | Reform 22% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 51% | Reform 23% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 47% | Reform 26% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 56% | Tory 21% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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