General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 20% Gateshead (2019), 80% Jarrow (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 49% | Reform 24% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 52% | Reform 23% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Labour 60% | Reform 18% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 57% | Reform 19% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Labour 53% | Reform 28% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 53% | Reform 22% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 50% | Reform 25% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 52% | Reform 22% | Labour |
| JL Partners | Labour 52% | Reform 20% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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