General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 56% Hitchin and Harpenden (2019), 19% Mid Bedfordshire (2019), 25% North East Bedfordshire (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
We have removed this tactical voting recommendation because it was contradicted by multiple independent polls.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 43% | Tory 27% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 38% | Tory 28% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Labour 36% | Tory 27% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 42% | Tory 26% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Labour 40% | Tory 24% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 35% | Lib Dem 25% | None |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 45% | Tory 22% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 35% | Tory 26% | Labour |
| JL Partners | Labour 33% | Lib Dem 22% | None |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
Promoted by the Tactical Voting Coalition, 483 Green Lanes, London N13 4BS