General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 89% Heywood and Middleton (2019), 11% Rochdale (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 46% | Reform 29% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 55% | Tory 19% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Labour 55% | Tory 23% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 56% | Tory 20% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Labour 57% | Tory 19% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 52% | Tory 18% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 50% | Reform 28% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 59% | Tory 27% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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