General election 2024

Harwich and North Essex

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Alex Diner

Notional 2019 election result

  Tories 60.2%

  Labour 23.5%

  Lib Dem 11.6%

  Green 3.7%

  Independent 1.2%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 10% Colchester (2019), 90% Harwich and North Essex (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Tory 34% Labour 34% Labour
Survation Labour 42% Tory 32% Labour
Ipsos Labour 38% Tory 32% Labour
Savanta Labour 37% Tory 27% Labour
Focaldata Labour 40% Tory 31% Labour
WeThink Labour 38% Tory 33% Labour
Electoral Calculus Labour 38% Tory 27% Labour
More in Common Labour 35% Tory 32% Labour
JL Partners Labour 37% Tory 28% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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