General election 2024

Hamble Valley

Tactical voting recommendation

Withdrawn

Notional 2019 election result

  Tories 59.9%

  Lib Dem 21.5%

  Labour 15.1%

  Green 3.5%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 47% Eastleigh (2019), 46% Fareham (2019), 7% Meon Valley (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

We have removed this tactical voting recommendation because it was contradicted by multiple independent polls.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Tory 39% Lib Dem 25% Lib Dem
Survation Tory 34% Labour 31% Labour
Ipsos Tory 38% Labour 24% Labour
Savanta Tory 31% Labour 28% Labour
Focaldata Tory 35% Labour 23% Labour
WeThink Tory 36% Labour 23% Labour
Electoral Calculus Tory 27% Labour 26% Labour
More in Common Tory 34% Lib Dem 26% Lib Dem
JL Partners Tory 28% Lib Dem 25% Lib Dem

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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