General election 2024


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Lib Dem

Zöe Franklin

Notional 2019 election result

  Tories 46.8%

  Lib Dem 38.3%

  Labour 7.2%

  Independent 6.3%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 82% Guildford (2019), 18% Mole Valley (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

The Lib Dems would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Lib Dem 46% Tory 26% Lib Dem
Survation Lib Dem 46% Tory 25% Lib Dem
Ipsos Lib Dem 39% Tory 25% Lib Dem
Savanta Lib Dem 42% Tory 26% Lib Dem
Focaldata Lib Dem 44% Tory 27% Lib Dem
WeThink Labour 35% Lib Dem 25% None
Electoral Calculus Lib Dem 57% Tory 23% Lib Dem
More in Common Lib Dem 48% Tory 24% Lib Dem
JL Partners Lib Dem 44% Tory 21% Lib Dem

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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