General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 75% Grantham and Stamford (2019), 25% Sleaford and North Hykeham (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 33% | Labour 27% | Labour |
| Survation | Tory 36% | Labour 35% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Tory 36% | Labour 32% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 36% | Tory 27% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Tory 33% | Labour 30% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 37% | Tory 31% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 34% | Tory 30% | Labour |
| More in Common | Tory 41% | Labour 37% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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