To vote tactically here, vote

Under our rules this would normally mean a Labour recommendation - however, given the circumstances of the byelection, we argue that several adjustments must be made, based on data from similar past byelections.

Incumbency factor

It is generally difficult for an incumbent government to win byelections. Across the most recent ten parliamentary byelections, the governing party's vote share dropped by 22 percentage points on average.

The previous byelection held under the post-2024 Labour government, the Runcorn and Helsby byelection of May 2025, saw Labour's vote drop by 15 percentage points, confirming that this 'incumbency factor' also affects the Labour government. The October 2025 Caerphilly byelection - even though it was a Senedd byelection, not a Westminster parliament byelection - was notable for an even bigger drop for Labour, 35 percentage points.

Workers Party withdrawal

One quirk particular to Gorton and Denton is that the Workers Party gained 10% of the vote in the 2024 general election (making it one of their strongest seats) but are not standing in the byelection. Given the respective parties' policy positions, it is likely that the Greens will pick up most of this vote.

Jeremy Corbyn's 'Your Party' is also not standing and the Greens have additionally been endorsed by campaign group The Muslim Vote, which is closely associated with the 'pro-Gaza independents' who won several seats in the general election.

Tactical voting asymmetry

While it is slightly circular to consider tactical voting preferences when recommending a tactical vote, the point here is that Labour-leaning voters are more likely to vote Green tactically than Green-leaning voters are to 'hold their nose' and vote Labour tactically.

Recent YouGov polling (Feb 2026) supports this, noting that 76% of Labour voters would vote tactically for the Greens to stop Reform, compared to 57% of Green voters who would vote Labour to stop Reform.

National polling

We do not primarily base our recommendations on polling, but we do use polling as a cross-check. We should note that since the 2024 general election, Labour's polling position has declined by approximately 15 percentage points nationally, while Reform UK's has risen by approx 12pp and the Greens have risen by approx 7pp.

Constituency-level byelection polling

The only credible constituency-level poll so far, released by Omnisis on 20 February, fits our overall analysis.

CONSTITUENCY POLL RESULT

(% of voters who expressed a preference)

  Green 33%
  Reform 29%
  Labour 26%
  Conservative 5%
  Lib Dem 2%

This poll also asked how voters would vote if other parties were not running. A Green-vs-Reform contest results in a large win for the Greens, by 39% to 25%, while a Labour-vs-Reform one is much closer, with Labour winning by 33% to 28%. This shows that, if progressive voters coalesced behind one candidate, it is the Greens who would have the best chance.

The poll shows an unusually high number of undecided voters, at 31%. We believe much of this uncertainty is caused by contending claims by parties that they are the "tactical vote", which has become a prominent feature of both Labour and Green messaging.

For that reason, we are publishing our own analysis and recommendation here as a contribution to the debate about the best tactical vote.

Get in touch if you have more information that you believe should be included on this page: feedback@tactical.vote