General election 2024

Gordon and Buchan

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SNP

Richard Gordon Thomson

Notional 2019 election result

  Tories 43%

  SNP 42.2%

  Lib Dem 9.5%

  Labour 5.2%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 20% Banff and Buchan (2019), 80% Gordon (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

The SNP would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Tory 35% SNP 32% SNP
Survation SNP 32% Tory 30% SNP
Ipsos Tory 32% SNP 30% SNP
Savanta Tory 32% Labour 29% Labour
Focaldata SNP 28% Tory 28% SNP
WeThink SNP 33% Tory 26% SNP
Electoral Calculus SNP 34% Labour 26% None
More in Common SNP 33% Tory 32% SNP
JL Partners SNP 33% Tory 26% SNP

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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