General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 26% Guildford (2019), 6% Mole Valley (2019), 46% South West Surrey (2019), 21% Surrey Heath (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
The Lib Dems would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Lib Dem 46% | Tory 29% | Lib Dem |
| Survation | Lib Dem 44% | Tory 31% | Lib Dem |
| Ipsos | Tory 34% | Lib Dem 33% | Lib Dem |
| Savanta | Lib Dem 35% | Tory 31% | Lib Dem |
| Focaldata | Lib Dem 46% | Tory 28% | Lib Dem |
| WeThink | Lib Dem 38% | Tory 30% | Lib Dem |
| Electoral Calculus | Lib Dem 47% | Tory 28% | Lib Dem |
| More in Common | Lib Dem 49% | Tory 34% | Lib Dem |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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