General election 2024

Gedling

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Labour

Michael Payne

Notional 2019 election result

  Tories 46.4%

  Labour 43.3%

  Lib Dem 4.6%

  Brexit Party 3.4%

  Green 2.2%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 94% Gedling (2019), 6% Sherwood (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Labour 56% Tory 22% Labour
Survation Labour 49% Tory 22% Labour
Ipsos Labour 48% Tory 24% Labour
Savanta Labour 55% Tory 18% Labour
Focaldata Labour 46% Tory 23% Labour
WeThink Labour 56% Tory 19% Labour
Electoral Calculus Labour 53% Tory 20% Labour
More in Common Labour 57% Tory 25% Labour
JL Partners Labour 46% Tory 23% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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