General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 55% Fareham (2019), 45% Meon Valley (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
The Lib Dems would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 33% | Labour 22% | Labour |
| Survation | Tory 32% | Labour 30% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Tory 37% | Labour 31% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 31% | Tory 29% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Tory 29% | Labour 24% | Labour |
| WeThink | Tory 33% | Labour 32% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Tory 29% | Labour 26% | Labour |
| More in Common | Tory 41% | Labour 27% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
Promoted by the Tactical Voting Coalition, 483 Green Lanes, London N13 4BS